Assessing the impact of China shocks on intra-ASEAN trade

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Kazunobu Hayakawa
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have made significant efforts to increase intra-ASEAN trade by reducing or eliminating tariffs in the region. However, intra-ASEAN trade as a percentage of total trade in the region has not increased significantly; instead, ASEAN countries' imports from China have grown dramatically. In this study, we examine the causal impacts of imports from China on intra-ASEAN trade by estimating gravity-type equations for intra-ASEAN trade at a highly disaggregated product level for the period 2000–2019. In particular, we address the issues of including observations with zero-valued trade and endogeneity in a gravity equation with multiple high-dimensional fixed effects. As a result, we found that imports from China significantly increase, rather than decrease, intra-ASEAN trade.

评估中国冲击对东盟内部贸易的影响
东南亚国家联盟(东盟)成员国通过降低或取消该地区的关税,为增加东盟内部贸易做出了重大努力。然而,东盟内部贸易占该区域贸易总额的百分比并没有显著增加;相反,东盟国家从中国的进口大幅增长。在本研究中,我们通过估计东盟内部贸易在2000-2019年高度分解的产品水平上的重力型方程,检验了从中国进口对东盟内部贸易的因果影响。特别是,我们解决了在具有多个高维固定效应的重力方程中包含零值贸易和内生性观测的问题。结果,我们发现从中国的进口显著增加而不是减少了东盟内部贸易。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.
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