Macro-economic indicators and housing price index in Spain: fresh evidence from FMOLS and DOLS

Abstract

Purpose This study aims to determine how changes in macroeconomic indicators and the housing prices index (HPI) are related. These factors can cause short-term and long-term changes in the housing market in Spain. Design/methodology/approach The study used cointegrating regression, fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares methodologies. The models are trained using quarterly time series data for these parameters from 2010 to 2022. A comprehensive examination is conducted to explore the relationship between macroeconomic issues and fluctuations in the HPI. Findings The results indicate statistically significant short-run effects ( p < 0.05) of economic growth, inflation, Spanish stock indices, foreign trade and the interest rate on HPI. The inflation variables, Spain’s stock indices, interest rate and monetary rate, have statistically significant long-run effects ( p < 0.05) on HPI. The exchange rate, unemployment and money supply have no substantial impact on HPI in Spain. Originality/value The study’s findings significantly contribute to increased information concerning the level of investing activity in the Spanish housing sector. After conducting an in-depth study of both the long-run and short-run connections with HPI, the study proved to be highly effective in formulating appropriate policies.