Ekonomiczne, społeczne i geopolityczne uwarunkowania ruchu granicznego = Economic, social and geopolitical conditioning of the cross-border traffic

Abstract

The primary objective of the present monograph is to determine the causes and to obtain the model-based generalization of the long-term variability as to the magnitude and structure of the traffic of persons across the boundaries of Poland, in dependence upon the economic, social and geopolitical variables, as well as those associated with the development of infrastructure. This primary objective was achieved through realization of the partial objectives, having complementary cognitive, methodological, theoretical, and also to some extent applied character. The partial objectives were constituted by: — assessment of trends in cross-border traffic (magnitudes and structures) in the years 1990‑2020 based on the observed data, acquired from the Border Guards (in the division into Schengen boundaries – analysis for the years 1990‑2007, and the eastern boundary – analysis for the years 1990‑2020); — assessment of dependence between, on the one hand, the trends in the magnitude and structure of the cross-border traffic, and, on the other hand, the variables, representing the economic, social, geopolitical and infrastructural development situation in Poland and in the neighboring countries, as well as the variables illustrating the intensity of the transboundary socio-economic interactions; — assessment of changes in the international mobility of Poles; — development of a formalized model of changes in cross-border traffic as dependent upon the variables considered; — identification and conceptualization of the observed transformations in the international spatial mobility; — formulation of the theoretical generalizations, explaining the variability in the intensity and structure of the cross-border traffic and their relations to the existing body of knowledge in this domain.