The Effect of Climate Variability on Cultivated Crops’ Yield and Farm Income in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand

Abstract

Agriculture, entwined with climatic conditions, plays a pivotal role in Thailand’s sustenance and economy. This study aimed to examine the trends of climate variability and its correlation with crop yields and social and farm factors affecting farm net income in Chiang Mai province, Thailand. Time series climate data (2002–2020) on temperature and rainfall and yields were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimation to investigate the trends and their changes. The Pearson correlation was used to assess the association between climate variability and cultivated crop yields, and multiple linear regression was used to detect the factors influencing the farm net income. The findings show that the total annual rainfall showed an unchanged trend, but the annual temperature increased over time. Higher temperature negatively impacted longan yield but positively affected maize, with no significant impact on rice yield. The rainfall trend had no effect on crop yields. Despite declining trends in some cultivated crops’ yield, farm net income was unaffected by individual crop types. Farm income relied on cumulative output and geographic location. This research emphasizes the need for integrating climate data and forecasting models considering agronomic and socio-economic factors and crop suitability assessments for specific regions into adaptation policies and practice.