Fuzzy-Bayes Decision Making with Reserved Judgement

Abstract

This paper discusses a method for identifying states in a multistage Decision Making Problem in which an Indifferent Event is either predetermined or can be automatically derived after the fact. First, when they are pre-set, the amount of possible information about Indifferent Event tends to be large. Therefore, since the decision is risk tolerant, the Max-Product method of Tanaka et al. is used to calculate the expected utility possibility. Next, in the case of automatic derivation after the fact, the amount of information on the possibility of Indifferent Event is relatively small, so the expected utility possibility is derived using Zadeh’s Fuzzy Event Possibility Measure. Here, it is assumed that the setting of the utility function is independent of the information on the occurrence of the Indifferent Event and is identified by the decision maker by lot drawing using the certainty equivalence method. As a concrete example, we focus on the pass/fail decision of a recommendation test, which is a two choice question in the No-Data Problem, and illustrate the multistage state identification method.