Exchange rate effects on China's exports: Product sophistication and exchange rate elasticity

Abstract

The negative effect of a currency appreciation on a country's exports may be attenuated as its export basket becomes more sophisticated. This paper investigates whether exchange rate changes affect China's exports differently depending on their sophistication levels, as measured by the Product Complexity Index (PCI). We estimate exchange rate elasticities for 1242 export categories disaggregated at the HS-4-digit level from 1995 to 2018 using bilateral trade data between China and 190 partner economies. Results indicate that exchange rate fluctuations have negative effects on China's export values, and exchange rate effects are less for more sophisticated exports. This decreasing of exchange rate elasticities for more sophisticated exports holds even when controlling for tariffs. The evidence also shows that, as China has upgraded its export basket over time, the impact of exchange rates on exports has become smaller and less significant. Moreover, the effect of exchange rate related policies on export values via the exchange rate is smaller and less significant for China's more sophisticated exports.