Dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic in Slovenia: simulations with a macroeconometric model

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-10-14 DOI:10.1007/s10663-023-09591-y

Klaus Weyerstrass, Dmitri Blueschke, Reinhard Neck, Miroslav Verbič

引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract In this paper we analyse the effectiveness of fiscal policies with respect to macroeconomic stabilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in the small open economy of Slovenia. Using SLOPOL11, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we simulate the development of the its economy during the 2020s under alternative assumptions about future pandemic-related shocks. We also determine optimal fiscal policies to combat the effects of the pandemic and to stabilise the economy under two scenarios for the future course of developments under COVID-19. Our simulations show that those public spending measures that entail both demand- and supply-side effects are more effective at stimulating real GDP and increasing employment than pure demand-side measures. Successful stabilisation policies should thus contain a supply-side component in addition to a demand-side component.

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应对斯洛文尼亚COVID-19大流行:宏观计量经济模型模拟

在本文中，我们分析了斯洛文尼亚小型开放经济体在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间财政政策在宏观经济稳定方面的有效性。利用斯洛文尼亚经济计量经济学模型SLOPOL11，我们在对未来流行病相关冲击的不同假设下，模拟了2020年代斯洛文尼亚经济的发展。我们还根据COVID-19的未来发展进程，确定了两种情景下的最佳财政政策，以应对大流行的影响并稳定经济。我们的模拟表明，与纯粹的需求侧措施相比，那些同时包含需求侧和供给侧效应的公共支出措施在刺激实际GDP和增加就业方面更有效。因此，成功的稳定政策除了包含需求方面的内容外，还应包含供给方面的内容。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.