Now decision theory

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.3934/puqr.2023018

Dilip B. Madan, Wim Schoutens, King Wang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The spirit of now in nowcasting suggests expanding the current to include the near future. Decision theory is then developed by incorporating the consequences of actions into the present. With the future falling into the present discounting it is no longer permitted. Value functions are then observed to be determinate only up to scale and shift that are then locked down by fixing values arbitrarily in two selected states, much like declaring water to freeze and boil at zero and a hundred degrees celsius. The locked down value functions associated policy functions are seen to exist in decision contexts in where the only time is now. Examples are studied in univariate and multivariate dimensions for the decision state space and the dimension of shocks delivering state transitions. The policy functions are expanded from realisitic training sets to the full state space using Gaussian Process Regression. They are implemented on real data with reported performances.

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现在是决策理论

临近预测中的现在精神建议将当前扩展到包括不久的将来。决策理论是通过将行动的后果纳入现在而发展起来的。随着未来落入现在的折扣，它不再被允许。然后，我们观察到，价值函数只能根据规模和位移来确定，然后通过在两种选定的状态下任意固定值来锁定它们，就像宣布水在0摄氏度和100摄氏度下冻结和沸腾一样。与策略函数相关的锁定值函数被视为存在于决策上下文中，其中唯一的时间是现在。在单变量和多变量维度上研究了决策状态空间和传递状态转换的冲击维度的例子。利用高斯过程回归将策略函数从实际训练集扩展到全状态空间。它们在具有报告性能的真实数据上实现。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.