Assessing the Impact of Terrorism on African Tourism Demand

Abstract

Many African states are relying on or have identified tourism to accelerate their growth and the continent has become the world's second fastest growing tourist industry. However, African states have also not been spared by increasing terrorism attacks during the past decades, probably hindering the growth of this sector to a certain extent. This study examines the relationship between terrorism and tourism for a sample of selected African countries over the period 1995 to 2017. Given the dynamic nature of tourism demand and the possibility of endogenous relationships in the terrorism–tourism nexus, dynamic panel data analysis, namely a Panel vector error correction model (PVECM), is employed. The results confirm that terrorism negatively affects tourism demand in Africa and this can be explained by the reactive psychology of tourists to the various aggravated terrorist attacks in the countries. Moreover, the findings show that an increase in tourism may have resulted in an increase in terrorist attacks, hence confirming a bi directional causality between tourism and terrorism.