Structural changes in Florida citrus production, 1980-2021 and associated consequences of weather events and disease.

Abstract

Florida citrus production from 1980-2021 was examined and modeled to determine the impacts associated with weather events and disease introductions.  Specifically, the study examined the effects of North Atlantic hurricanes, freezes events and two disease introductions -- Asiatic citrus canker (ACC), and Huanglongbing (HLB) -- on productions levels and on the structure of the Florida citrus industry.  The models estimated quantified the effects on production associated with the weather events and disease introductions.  Using the deterministic model generated, forecasts were generated to identify future implications of HLB on Florida citrus production.  Theses generated forecasts were compared to actual production levels and the USDA Crop forecast to test and validate the model.  Whereas testing indicated a significant structural change in the Florida citrus industry resulting from adverse weather events and disease introductions, published economic impact studies were examined and reviewed to gage the resulting reduction in total economic impact.