Performance Evaluation and Improvement of Operational Aviation Turbulence Prediction Model for Middle- and Upper- Levels

Abstract

Aviation turbulence, caused by atmospheric eddies, is a disruptive phenomenon that leads to abrupt aircraft movements during flight. To minimize the damages caused by such aviation turbulence, the Aviation Meteorological Office provides turbulence information through the Korea aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) and the Global-Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (GKTG). In this study, we evaluated the performance of the KTG and GKTG models by comparing the in-situ EDR observation data and the generated aviation turbulence prediction data collected from the mid-level Korean Peninsula region from January 2019 to December 2021. Through objective validation, we confirmed the level of prediction performance and proposed improvement measures based on it. As a result of the improvements, the KTG model showed minimal difference in performance before and after the changes, while the GKTG model exhibited an increase of TSS after the improvements.