Understanding uncertainty in forest resources maps

IF 1.7 3区 农林科学 Q2 FORESTRY
Silva Fennica Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.14214/sf.22026
Annika Kangas, Mari Myllymäki, Lauri Mehtätalo
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Maps of forest resources and other ecosystem services are needed for decision making at different levels. However, such maps are typically presented without addressing the uncertainties. Thus, the users of the maps have vague or no understanding of the uncertainties and can easily make wrong conclusions. Attempts to visualize the uncertainties are also rare, even though the visualization would be highly likely to improve understanding. One complication is that it has been difficult to address the predictions and their uncertainties simultaneously. In this article, the methods for addressing the map uncertainty and visualize them are first reviewed. Then, the methods are tested using laser scanning data with simulated response variable values to illustrate their possibilities. Analytical kriging approach captured the uncertainty of predictions at pixel level in our test case, where the estimated models had similar log-linear shape than the true model. Ensemble modelling with random forest led to slight underestimation of the uncertainties. Simulation is needed when uncertainty estimates are required for landscape level features more complicated than small areas.
了解森林资源图中的不确定性
不同层次的决策需要森林资源和其他生态系统服务的地图。然而,这样的地图通常没有解决不确定性。因此,地图的使用者对不确定性的理解是模糊的,或者根本不了解,很容易得出错误的结论。将不确定性形象化的尝试也很少,尽管形象化很有可能提高理解。一个复杂的问题是,很难同时处理这些预测及其不确定性。本文首先综述了地图不确定性的处理方法和可视化方法。然后,用模拟响应变量值的激光扫描数据对这些方法进行了测试,以说明它们的可行性。在我们的测试用例中,分析克里格方法捕获了像素级别预测的不确定性,其中估计模型具有与真实模型相似的对数线性形状。随机森林的集合模型导致了对不确定性的轻微低估。当需要对比小区域更复杂的景观水平特征进行不确定性估计时,需要进行模拟。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Silva Fennica
Silva Fennica 农林科学-林学
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
11.10%
发文量
21
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Silva Fennica publishes significant new knowledge on forest sciences. The scope covers research on forestry and forest ecosystems. Silva Fennica aims to increase understanding on forest ecosystems, and sustainable use and conservation of forest resources. Use of forest resources includes all aspects of forestry containing biomass-based and non-timber products, economic and social factors etc.
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