Modelling the impact of electronic auction on the tender procedure for the construction of railway infrastructure with the Bayesian networks

Abstract

: The numerous overruns of the investor’s budget during tenders for the construction of railway infrastructure in Poland resulted in the widespread use of a new procedure for awarding public contracts –electronicauction.Thisprocedurehasmanyadvantagesandpotentialrisks.Oneofthebiggestbenefitsforaninvestoristhepotentialgainsfromreducingbids.Contractorscompetingagainsteachotherallow fortheachievementofoptimalpricesfortheplannedconstructioninvestment.However,thismaycausetheoriginallycalculatedrisks,shouldtheymaterialize,leadtosignificantbudgetoverruns.This,inturn, mayimplyfurthernegativeconsequences,includingexceedingtheassumedinvestmentdeadlines.Thearticlepresentsamethodofmodelingtheinfluenceofanelectronicauctiononatenderprocedurewith theuseofaBayesiannetwork.DatafromcompletedtenderproceduresannouncedbythePKPPolskieLinieKolejoweS.A.wereusedtobuildthenetwork.Thecreatednetworkwasthenvalidated,verified andcalibratedusingnewdatafrom8tenderprocedures.