The impacts of armed conflict on vegetation cover degradation in Tigray, northern Ethiopia

Abstract

Efforts made to restore the degraded landscape of the Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia, over the last three decades have been relatively successful. However, an armed conflict that broke out in the region in November 2020 has significantly destroyed the restored vegetation, either directly associated with conflict (environment, pollution, fire) or indirectly (agricultural abandonment). This study aimed at assessing spatio-temporal changes in vegetation cover in a 50 km radius zone centered on Mekelle city, Tigray. Vegetation cover dynamics was evaluated using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) datasets for the years 2000, 2020, and 2022 and analysed using ENVI 5.3 and ArcGIS 10.8.1 software. These data were analysed using the Modified Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MNDVI), Optimized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (OSAVI), and Moisture Adjusted Vegetation Index (MAVI). Based on the MNDVI, results show that vegetation cover increased in the period 2000–2020 by 179 km² or 2% of the area, whereas in the period 2020–2022, there was a decrease in vegetation cover by 403 km² or 5% of the area. This was accompanied by a decrease in vegetation density. These vegetation changes in 2020–2022 are attributed to the impact of armed conflict on the land surface which can include farmlands and village abandonment, spread of weeds and scrub vegetation, or failure to harvest crops. Monitoring vegetation change using Landsat data can help understand the environmental impacts of armed conflict in rural agricultural landscapes, including potential food security risks.