Prospects for Russian Oil and Refining Industries Under Sanctions

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS

Ekonomicheskaya politika Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.18288/1994-5124-2023-3-82-109

Andrey Kaukin, Vladimir Kosarev, Evgenia Miller

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Abstract

The sanctions imposed on Russia in February 2022 have affected the current and future revenues of the domestic energy sector as well as the tax revenues derived from it, while they have also made public welfare losses due to accumulated imbalances in the fuel and energy sector more sensitive to the Russian economy (for example, through subsidies for oil refining). Developing recommendations for adjusting the way the Russian oil refining sector is subsidized is now an urgent matter. This paper estimates the factor payment for the use of oil rent, considers the structure of its distribution in the Russian economy, and provides a scenario analysis of the consequences of imposing sanctions, which include a “price ceiling,” changes in tax regulation, and an increase in the processing depth of refineries. Based on this analysis, reforms in the taxation of the Russian oil refining sector are proposed. The results of the scenario analysis show that, under the current conditions, it is extremely important to continue modernizing oil refineries. A potential reduction in the production of petroleum products would result in the smallest losses industry-wide, provided that it is achieved by suspending the least efficient refineries (those with low GVA in the absence of subsidies) and by ending subsidies for friendly economies

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受制裁的俄罗斯石油和炼油行业前景

2022年2月对俄罗斯实施的制裁影响了国内能源部门当前和未来的收入以及由此产生的税收收入，同时也使由于燃料和能源部门累积失衡而造成的公共福利损失对俄罗斯经济更加敏感(例如，通过对炼油的补贴)。为调整俄罗斯炼油行业的补贴方式提出建议，现在是一件紧迫的事情。本文估计了使用石油租金的要素支付，考虑了其在俄罗斯经济中的分布结构，并对实施制裁的后果进行了情景分析，其中包括“价格上限”，税收法规的变化以及炼油厂加工深度的增加。在此分析的基础上，提出了俄罗斯炼油部门税收改革的建议。情景分析结果表明，在当前条件下，继续进行炼油厂现代化改造是极其重要的。石油产品生产的潜在减少将导致整个工业的最小损失，前提是暂停效率最低的炼油厂(在没有补贴的情况下GVA低的炼油厂)和结束对友好经济体的补贴

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ekonomicheskaya politika ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.30

自引率

20.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Ekonomicheskaya Politika is a broad-range economic journal devoted primarily to the study of the economic policy of present-day Russia as well as global economic problems. The subject matters of articles includes macroeconomic, fiscal, monetary, industrial, social, regulation and competition policyand more. The journal also publishes theoretical papers in such areas as political economy, general economic theory, welfare economics, law and economics,and institutional economics.. The character and the scope of economic problems studied in many publications require a multidisciplinary approach, consistent with the editorial policy of the journal. While the thematic scope of articles is generally related to Russia, the aim of editorial policy is to cover politico-economic processes in the modern world and international economic relations, as well. In addition, Ekonomicheskaya Politika publishes Russian translations of classical and significant modern works of foreign economists.