Diagnostic accuracy of ePOS score in predicting DNR labeling after ICU admission: A prospective observational study (ePOS-DNR)

Abstract

Background

Resuscitation can sometimes be futile and making a do-not-resuscitate (DNR) decision is in the best interest of the patient. The electronic poor outcome screening (ePOS) score was developed to predict 6-month poor outcomes of critically ill patients. We explored the diagnostic accuracy of the ePOS score in predicting DNR decisions in the intensive care unit (ICU).

Methods

This study was conducted at the ICU of a tertiary referral hospital in Saudi Arabia between March and May 2023. Prospectively, we calculated ePOS scores for all eligible consecutive admissions after 48 h in the ICU and recorded the DNR orders. The ability of the score to predict DNR was explored using logistic regression. Youden's ideal cut-off value was calculated using the DeLong method, and different diagnostic accuracy measures were generated with corresponding 95 % confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

We enrolled 857 patients, 125 received a DNR order and 732 did not. The average ePOS score of DNR and non-DNR patients was 28.2±10.7 and 15.2±9.7, respectively. ePOS score, as a predictor of DNR order, had an area under receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve of 81.8 % (95% CI: 79.0 to 84.3, P <0.001). Youden's ideal cut-off value >17 was associated with a sensitivity of 87.2 (95% CI: 80.0 to 92.5, P <0.001), specificity of 63.9 (95% CI: 60.3 to 67.4, P <0.001), positive predictive value of 29.2 (95% CI: 24.6 to 33.8, P <0.001), negative predictive value of 96.7 (95% CI: 95.1 to 98.3, P <0.001), and diagnostic odds ratio 12.1 (95% CI: 7.0 to 20.8, P <0.001).

Conclusions

In this study, the ePOS score performed well as a diagnostic test for patients who will be labeled as DNR during their ICU stay. A cut-off score >17 may help guide clinical decisions to withhold or commence resuscitative measures.