Modeling probabilistic-based 1D riverbed elevation estimation model due to uncertainties in runoff and sediment-related factors

IF 2.6 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Hydrology Research Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI:10.2166/nh.2023.097

Shiang-Jen Wu, Chia-Yuan Tsai, Keh-Chia Yeh

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract This study aims to develop a probabilistic model to quantify the reliability of estimating riverbed elevations due to the uncertainties in the runoff and sediment-related factors (named PM_MBEE_1D); the above uncertainties are quantified by reproducing a considerable number of runoff-related and sediment-related factors via the multivariate Monte Carlo simulation approach. Using a sizeable number of simulated uncertainty factors, the proposed PM_MBEE_1D model is developed by coupling the rainfall–runoff model (SAC-SMA) and 1D sediment transport simulation model (CCHE1D) with the uncertainty/risk analysis advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) method as well as the logistic regression analysis. Validated by the historical data in the Jhuosdhuei River watershed, the proposed PM_MBEE_1D model could efficiently and successfully capture the spatial and temporal changes in the estimated riverbed elevations (i.e., scouring and siltation) due to the uncertainties in the river runoff and sediment with a high accuracy (nearly 0.983). Also, using the proposed PM_MBEE_1D model with given runoff and sediment factors under a desired reliability, the probabilistic-based riverbed elevations could accordingly be estimated as a reference to watershed treatment and management plan.

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建模基于概率的一维河床高程估算模型，考虑径流和泥沙相关因素的不确定性

摘要:本研究旨在建立一个概率模型(命名为PM_MBEE_1D)，以量化由于径流和泥沙相关因素的不确定性而估算河床高程的可靠性;通过多元蒙特卡罗模拟方法再现大量与径流和泥沙有关的因素，对上述不确定性进行了量化。利用大量模拟的不确定性因子，将降雨径流模型(SAC-SMA)和一维输沙模拟模型(CCHE1D)与不确定性/风险分析高级一阶二阶矩(AFOSM)方法以及logistic回归分析相结合，建立PM_MBEE_1D模型。通过对焦化河流域历史数据的验证，PM_MBEE_1D模型能够有效、成功地捕捉到由于径流和泥沙的不确定性所导致的河床高程(即冲淤)的时空变化，精度接近0.983。在一定的可靠度下，利用PM_MBEE_1D模型，可以估算出基于概率的河床高程，为流域治理和管理规划提供参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Hydrology Research WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

5.00

自引率

7.40%

发文量

审稿时长

3.8 months

期刊介绍： Hydrology Research provides international coverage on all aspects of hydrology in its widest sense, and welcomes the submission of papers from across the subject. While emphasis is placed on studies of the hydrological cycle, the Journal also covers the physics and chemistry of water. Hydrology Research is intended to be a link between basic hydrological research and the practical application of scientific results within the broad field of water management.