Factors associated with rural aging in Brazilian municipalities: an analysis using quantile regressions

Abstract

In rural Brazil, aging is an important phenomenon for the future of the country’s agricultural production. This process is associated with both increased life expectancy and rural-urban migration. According to studies on migration, young people are more likely to change their place of residence, being attracted by the existence of work opportunities and, consequently, repulsed by their scarcity. This study assumes the rate of rural aging tends to be higher in places where the ratio of urban to rural work opportunities is high. Thus, using spatial dependence models and quantile analysis of data from the 2017 Agricultural Census, the effects of factors associated with income, agrarian structure, and location on rural aging in Brazilian municipalities were assessed. The results suggest rural areas with low attractiveness situated close to urban centers are the most susceptible to population aging and, consequently, rural depopulation.