Winter Wheat Crop Models Improve Growth Simulation by Including Phenological Response to Water-Deficit Stress

IF 2.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Modeling & Assessment Pub Date : 2023-11-10 DOI:10.1007/s10666-023-09939-5

Kyle R. Mankin, Debora A. Edmunds, Gregory S. McMaster, Fred Fox, Larry E. Wagner, Timothy R. Green

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Abstract

Abstract Crop models can provide insights into the impacts of climate and management on crop growth and yield, but most currently are limited by overly simplistic assumptions about phenological development and response to water stress. We assessed winter wheat growth and yield performance of three crop models with lineage to the EPIC crop submodel. SWAT adopted the EPIC approach with few modifications, WEPS added new biomass accumulation, partitioning, and canopy approaches linked to key phenological development stages, and UPGM added to WEPS a detailed phenology component simulating responses to water-deficit stress. The models were evaluated with default parameters and compared to experimental data for winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) from two sites and a range of water-stress conditions for yield, aboveground biomass, biomass partitioning, canopy height, harvest index, and leaf area index. All models simulated yield very well (index of agreement [d] ≥ 0.93), but differences in model performance were increasingly evident for biomass (d = 0.91 [WEPS] to 0.86 [SWAT]), final canopy height (d = 0.68 [UPGM] to 0.44 [SWAT]), and harvest index (d = 0.61 [WEPS] to 0.43 [SWAT]). Errors in biomass simulation were most evident in the grain-filling period late in the growing season. Both WEPS and UPGM exhibited improved simulation of biomass and other response variables by including more explicit simulation of phenological response to water stress. The consistent improvement in winter wheat growth and yield simulation achieved with detailed phenology simulation provides an incentive to develop and test detailed phenology simulation components for other crops: currently 11 crops are simulated in UPGM, although the phenological parameters are uncalibrated. Better modeling linkages of water-stressed phenological development with other physiological processes will be critical to inform crop production where water stress and irrigation limitation are concerns.

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冬小麦作物模型通过纳入水分亏缺胁迫的物候响应来改善生长模拟

作物模型可以深入了解气候和管理对作物生长和产量的影响，但目前大多数模型都受到物候发育和对水分胁迫反应过于简单的假设的限制。我们评估了与EPIC作物子模型有亲缘关系的三种作物模型的冬小麦生长和产量表现。SWAT采用了EPIC方法，修改很少，WEPS增加了新的生物量积累、分配和与关键物候发育阶段相关的冠层方法，UPGM在WEPS中增加了详细的物候成分，模拟对缺水胁迫的响应。采用默认参数对模型进行评价，并与不同水分胁迫条件下的冬小麦(Triticum aestivum L.)产量、地上生物量、生物量分配、冠层高度、收获指数和叶面积指数的试验数据进行比较。所有模型都能很好地模拟产量(一致性指数[d]≥0.93)，但在生物量(d = 0.91 [WEPS] ~ 0.86 [SWAT])、最终冠层高度(d = 0.68 [UPGM] ~ 0.44 [SWAT])和收获指数(d = 0.61 [WEPS] ~ 0.43 [SWAT])方面，模型性能的差异越来越明显。生物量模拟误差在生育期后期灌浆期最为明显。WEPS和UPGM通过更明确地模拟物候对水分胁迫的响应，改善了对生物量和其他响应变量的模拟。通过详细物候模拟实现的冬小麦生长和产量模拟的持续改善，为开发和测试其他作物的详细物候模拟组件提供了动力:目前UPGM模拟了11种作物，尽管物候参数未经校准。更好地模拟水分胁迫物候发育与其他生理过程之间的联系，将对关注水分胁迫和灌溉限制的作物生产至关重要。

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来源期刊

Environmental Modeling & Assessment 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

4.20%

发文量

审稿时长

18-36 weeks

期刊介绍： Environmental Modeling & Assessment strives to achieve this by publishing high quality, peer-reviewed papers that may be regarded as either instances of best practice, or as studies that advance the evolution and applicability of the theories and techniques of modeling and assessment. Consequently, Environmental Modeling & Assessment will publish high quality papers on all aspects of environmental problems that contain a significant quantitative modeling or analytic component, interpreted broadly. In particular, we are interested both in detailed scientific models of specific environmental problems and in large scale models of the global environment. We invite models of environmental problems and phenomena that utilise, in an original way, the techniques of ordinary and partial differential equations, simulation, statistics and applied probability, control theory, operations research, mathematical economics, and game theory. Emphasis will be placed on the novelty of the model, the environmental relevance of the problem, and the generic applicability of the techniques used. Generally, papers should be written in a manner that is accessible to a wide interdisciplinary audience.