Consumer resilience in war conditions in Ukraine: Travel market case

IF 2.4 Q2 ECONOMICS

Contemporary Economics Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI:10.5709/ce.1897-9254.510

Iuliia Kostynets, Valeriia Kostynets

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study and modeling of the behavior of Ukrainian consumers in the tourist services market in the context of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. The authors conducted a study of current global market trends in the aspect of the functioning of the industry in the conditions of war in Ukraine. The authors identified prospects for the restoration and development of the tourist services market in the context of further stabilization and improvement of the situation in Ukraine. The article analyzes the potential and realized consumer demand in the market of tourist services in Ukraine. The authors analyzed the results of a survey of tourism business professionals, as well as consumer requests, in order to establish changes in consumer preferences over the past 5 years. Based on the use of the SARIMA model, the authors calculated the forecast values of the frequency of consumer requests for specific tourist destinations 12 steps ahead. The results obtained in the course of the study confirmed the hypothesis of stable consumption of tourist services by Ukrainian consumers.

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乌克兰战争条件下的消费者恢复力:旅游市场案例

本文致力于在俄罗斯军事入侵乌克兰的背景下，对乌克兰消费者在旅游服务市场中的行为进行研究和建模。作者在乌克兰战争条件下对该行业运作方面的当前全球市场趋势进行了研究。作者确定了在乌克兰局势进一步稳定和改善的背景下恢复和发展旅游服务市场的前景。文章分析了乌克兰旅游服务市场的潜力和已实现的消费者需求。作者分析了一项针对旅游业务专业人士的调查结果以及消费者的要求，以确定过去5年来消费者偏好的变化。基于SARIMA模型的使用，作者提前12步计算了消费者对特定旅游目的地的请求频率的预测值。在研究过程中获得的结果证实了乌克兰消费者稳定消费旅游服务的假设。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Contemporary Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

9.50%

发文量

审稿时长

24 weeks

期刊介绍： The mission of the Contemporary Economics is to publish advanced theoretical and empirical research in economics, finance, accounting and management with the noticeable contribution and impact to the development of those disciplines and preferably with practice relevancies. All entirety of methods is desirable, including a falsification of conventional understanding, theory building through inductive or qualitative research, first empirical testing of a theory, meta-analysis with theoretical implications, constructive replication that clarifies the boundaries or range of a theory for theoretical research as well as qualitative, quantitative, field, laboratory, meta-analytic, and combination for an empirical research. This clear priority for comprehensive manuscripts containing a methodology-based theoretical and empirical research with implications and recommendations for policymaking does not exclude manuscripts entirely focused on theory or methodology. Manuscripts that raise significant, actual topics of international relevance will be highly appreciated. The interdisciplinary approach including – besides economic, financial, accounting or managerial –also other aspects, is welcomed.