Analysis with SARIMA and FFT Between Two Neighboring Cities Regarding the Implementation of Restrictive Lockdown Measures

Abstract

In this article, we perform the SARIMA model to regress the curve of daily COVID-19 deaths and the impact of implementing restrictive measures like lockdown. For comparison, we adopt two neighboring Brazilian cities with similar characteristics and decompose the original curve of cases to extract the seasonal curve. Using Fast Fourier Transform, we noticed that restriction of human circulation had a direct impact on COVID-19 cases and deaths in Araraquara by identifying the frequencies that compose the seasonal curves during the disease’s transmission period, which for future work allows analysis and identification of events and actions through the approach.