The socioeconomic consequences of population ageing: aspects of modern challenges in the Russian Federation

G. Mabiala, I. Sukhareva, D. V. Linskiy, E. V. Trusevich, E. E. Shamilevа
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Abstract

Purpose: the article summarizes the key characteristics of the population ageing phenomenon and identifies the channels through which it has an impact on the demographic crisis parameters as well as the socioeconomic growth of the country.Methods: the study is based on tracking the consequences associated with the phenomenon of population ageing. Simultaneously, computational and graphical methods, comparative and retrospective analysis of the sex and age pyramids, expert and empirical assessment of the trends in the structure of the population older than 60-65 years, as well as its economic burden per 1,000 able-bodied people, were used.Results: the main parameters of the socioeconomic impacts of population ageing are determined. Age limits and essential features of this phenomenon are revealed. The forecast trend of socioeconomic parameters of population ageing is supported by the SWOT analysis matrix, and a conceptual model for the implementation of systematic adjustment measures for the ongoing demographic crisis is proposed.Conclusions and Relevance: the article demonstrates that population ageing is not a fundamental socioeconomic problem that endangers the well-being of the population over working age. However, it has many negative consequences for the socioeconomic growth of the country that are still being researched; the real threats come not from population ageing as such, but from the existing disproportion in the workload of the population over 60-65 years old per 1,000 able-bodied population. Despite the relative parameters of the ageing trend in Russia, in the future, the life expectancy of the population will be 73.58-75.03 years.
人口老龄化的社会经济后果:俄罗斯联邦现代挑战的各个方面
目的:本文总结了人口老龄化现象的主要特征,并确定了它对人口危机参数和国家社会经济增长产生影响的渠道。方法:研究的基础是跟踪与人口老龄化现象相关的后果。同时,使用了计算和图形方法、性别和年龄金字塔的比较和回顾性分析、60-65岁以上人口结构趋势的专家和经验评估以及每1 000名健全人口的经济负担。结果:确定了人口老龄化社会经济影响的主要参数。揭示了这一现象的年龄限制和本质特征。通过SWOT分析矩阵支持人口老龄化社会经济参数的预测趋势,提出了针对持续的人口危机实施系统性调整措施的概念模型。结论和相关性:本文表明,人口老龄化不是一个危及工作年龄以上人口福祉的基本社会经济问题。然而,它对国家社会经济增长的许多负面影响仍在研究中;真正的威胁不是来自人口老龄化本身,而是来自每1000名健全人口中60-65岁以上人口的工作量比例失调。尽管俄罗斯老龄化趋势的相对参数,但未来人口的预期寿命将在73.58-75.03岁之间。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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