COMPONENTE DI FONDO E COMPONENTI CICLICHE DELL’INDICE DELLA PRODUZIONE INDUSTRIALE IN ITALIA

Abstract

The note is meant to investigate the Italian Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for both the long- and the short-run. To this end, the trend and the cyclic components are detected from the parent IIP time series via a signal-theory argument, which hinges on a finite discrete approximation of an ideal low-pass filter. The behavior of the long-run component thus obtained provides impressive evidence of the structural nature of the crisis afflicting the Italian economy since the beginning of the new millennium.