A Fuzzy Probabilistic Power Flow Method Based on Fuzzy Copula Model

Abstract

With increasing renewable energies integrated into power grid, the variability and uncertainty in power system are becoming dramatic and unpredictable. Probabilistic Power Flow was proposed to handle the uncertainties, by introducing random variables with specific probability distributions into calculation. However, the current PPF usually adopts correlation coefficient matrix as its correlation model, which is incomplete for probabilistic modelling. And the deterministic distributions in PPF cannot fully describe the randomness of renewable energy. To address the problem, this paper proposed a fuzzy Copula model for building a more complete and real probability model. And based on the fuzzy model, a whole scheme of Fuzzy Probabilistic Power Flow (FPPF) was established. Case study showed that FPPF can help obtain more possible distribution scenarios of objective random variables, indicating its superior reliability and practicability than conventional PPF.