Modeling the Portfolio Structure of a Project-Oriented Organization Based on an Entropy Concept

Abstract

The object of research is the sustainability and value of project-oriented organizations in the framework of the entropy concept. Ensuring the sustainability of project-oriented organizations should be carried out through the formation of their portfolio of projects. At the same time, in the short term, the entropy of the organization should correspond to a certain stability corridor. And with long-term planning, the implementation of projects should ensure an increase in the upper boundary of this corridor due to an increase in the level of the entropy barrier. The analysis of modern approaches to the formation of a portfolio of project-oriented organizations is carried out. The need for a new interpretation of the concepts of «value» and «sustainability» in the context of the entropic methodology of project management is determined. It has been established that the task of forming a portfolio of projects should be solved subject to ensuring the balance of «value-sustainability».

The research used the methods of system analysis and mathematical modeling. The concept of «sustainability of an organization» has received a new interpretation within the framework of the entropy concept, which defines sustainability as the ability to remain within the entropic barrier, which can be increased through the implementation of relevant projects. It is determined that «stability», measured by energy entropy, characterizes the state of the organization, and «value» is the result of its activities. Ensuring the balance «sustainability-value» is the essence of the main approach to project portfolio management of a project-oriented organization, that is, the achievement of certain results should not lead to an uncontrolled increase in entropy. The concept of «development project» has been expanded within the framework of the entropy methodology, which does not contradict existing approaches, but develops them, considering the result of development as an influence on entropy by influencing the parameters that form it.

A model for forming a project portfolio of a project-oriented organization has been developed. This model allows to determine the composition of the portfolio of projects of two categories – projects of current activity and development projects. Also, this model distributes them within the allocated time interval of the portfolio in order to balance the indicators of the state and results of the organization’s activities. This approach ensures sustainability in an entropic context while achieving the required level of organizational value.