Loss of Load Probability effect on Four Power Stations

Abstract

One of the major factors in planning, design, operation and maintenance of the power system is the reliability. The electric power planning concentrates on the load forecast for the future. The future expectation of electric load needs the load history to data. The present study concentrates on one of the terms used in the reliability, which is Loss of Load Probability (LOLP). This term followed when the loss of load happens as the electric load exceeds the available generating capacity of the system. As a measure of the LOLP it means how much in time, the load exceeds the available capacity of the system. Four power stations combined and considered to form one power system. The LOLP calculated for the system under different loads. This type of consideration is helping to plan the future of the system and finding the effect of load on power system reliability. At the same time, the LOLP-FOR model investigated.