Illuminating Venezuelan Opposition: Network Analytics for Phase Zero Planning

Abstract

The growing number of low-intensity conflicts around the world calls for greater attention by military and political strategists to identify and target pre-crisis intervention points for Phase zero operations. The pre-conflict environment of Phase zero is more complex than ever and requires a multivariate analysis. This article uses a method of quantitative analysis to illuminate the various facets of the Venezuelan crisis to provide decision-makers with the necessary information to make better-informed decisions for Phase zero operations. This may include who the influencers are and how they can be leveraged, what the indicators of conflict are, when there are opportunities to act, and where there are key locations of political competition. By using exploratory methods in the fields of social network analysis, social movement theory, and statistical analysis, this article develops an alternative quantitative model of analysis to answer the questions of who, what, where, when, and how for Phase zero operations in Venezuela.