6. Climate surprises

Abstract

‘Climate surprises’ assesses the possibility that there are thresholds or tipping points in the climate system that may occur as we warm the planet. Scientists have been concerned about these tipping points over the last three decades. One can examine the way different parts of the climate system respond to climate change with four scenarios. These include linear but delayed response; muted or limited response; delayed and non-linear response; and threshold response. It is worth considering here the melting of the Greenland and/or Western Antarctic ice sheet; the slowing down of the North Atlantic deep ocean circulation; the potential massive release of methane from melting gas hydrates; and the possibility of the Amazon rainforest dieback.