Market-Clearing Price Forecasting Using Keras in Turkish Day-Ahead Electricity Market

Mikail Purlu, B. Turkay, Cenk Andic, E. Aydin, Bilal Canol, Burak Kucukaslan
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

The market-clearing price determined in the electricity market is of great importance for the market players trading in electricity. The market-clearing price constitutes the core of the buying and selling transactions in the electricity market. Knowing what the price of the product, service or commodity to be bought and / or sold would be, provides a great competitive advantage to the relevant party over the person or organization carrying out the relevant commercial activity. It is important to successfully predict the market-clearing price in the market in order to set strategy and game plan and implement risk management. For this purpose, in this study, a model using only publicly available input data on Keras, a deep learning library, is used to predict hourly market-clearing price in Turkish Day-Ahead Electricity Market. Despite the high economic and financial uncertainty and price fluctuations in 2021, the proposed model showed a high performance with a MAPE value of 2.5% and it is clear that the model is successful and applicable in real market conditions.
基于Keras的土耳其日前电力市场出清价格预测
电力市场确定的出清价格对电力交易的市场主体具有重要意义。市场出清价格是电力市场买卖交易的核心。知道要购买和/或出售的产品、服务或商品的价格将为相关方提供比开展相关商业活动的个人或组织更大的竞争优势。成功预测市场出清价格对于制定策略和博弈计划,实施风险管理具有重要意义。为此,在本研究中,仅使用Keras(一个深度学习库)上公开可用的输入数据的模型,用于预测土耳其日前电力市场的每小时市场出清价格。尽管2021年的经济和金融不确定性和价格波动很大,但所提出的模型显示出高性能,MAPE值为2.5%,很明显,该模型是成功的,适用于实际市场条件。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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