Index Forecast Study Based on Amended Weighted Markov Chain in China

Abstract

Shanghai Composite Index is one of the most representative indexes of Chinese stock market index that is the gauge of national economy and the direction to economic development, therefore, the forecast study on Shanghai Composite index is of great significance in theory and practice. Through analysis, fluctuation of the short-term Shanghai Composite Index conforms to fundamental assumption of Markov chain forecast. This paper mainly amended weighted Markov chain model to study and forecast short-term trend of Shanghai Composite Index, hoping to facilitate investors and potential investors to make investment decisions and provide reference for them.