Study on the Dynamics of COVID-19 Cases in Achieving Herd Immunity in Indonesia

Abstract

Group immunity or herd immunity is a crucial condition that determines whether or not the COVID-19 outbreak is controlled or not. Government policies, both in terms of social control and vaccination, are one of the important factors in achieving group immunity. In this paper, an analysis of the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is carried out in correlation with government policies and also the rate of vaccination. We found that vaccination is the most important key in achieving group immunity and this will lead to Indonesian mobility behavior towards COVID-19 from time to time. Government Policies also play a significant effort toward vaccinations starting from the beginning (PSBB) to Emergency PPKM. This study is not considered a new variant that is resistant against vaccines, it may take more time in achieving group immunity if the new variants exist. This analysis leads to a deduction of the time required for Indonesia to achieve herd immunity. This study also estimates the time series of cases and vaccinations using the N-Beats model to strengthen the deductions made from past dynamics. Based on this study, it is estimated that in February 2022 a mask removal policy will be issued and in October 2021 COVID-19 positive cases will be declined.