FORCED MIGRATION CRISIS AND ITS DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Abstract

Scientific novelty. The Russian-Ukrainian war led to a mass migration of the population both within the state itself and beyond its borders, which led to the emergence of the phenomenon of forced migrants, internally displaced persons, refugees, displaced persons, asylum seekers and emigrants in Ukrainian society. A large-scale wave of internally displaced persons and emigrants causes security, social, economic, financial, family and demographic problems. The article determines the trends of Ukraine’s population reduction, which is accelerating the demographic catastrophe, in particular, the increasing in population mortality due to war, huge internal displacements, the growth of emigration (refugees), the decrease in the birth rate and the probable loss of territories. The causes of the migration crisis are established, and its demographic consequences are determined, in particular: the probability of life loss; the impact of the war on the geographical distribution of the population (massive and permanent internal displacement); labor shortage and increasing burden on the pension system, decrease in birth rate (decrease in the number of women of reproductive age); increase in the number of the population of older age groups). It is also proven that the “new age structure of the country’s population” will have a smaller proportion of young people and a larger population of older age groups, which will put additional pressure on the national economy during recovery and reconstruction. Already today, the immediate demographic impact of the war on Ukraine is felt, as it has a “weak” demographic profile. Conclusions. The article substantiates that strong labor relations with employers are one of the important factors of preserving labor potential in Ukraine. However, this aspect has certain challenges for employers, in particular, creating jobs for people who have moved from the war zone (money and access to work remain the main factors for Ukrainian refugees); security guarantees and provision of housing; provision of financial support to victims and others. Key words: migration, demography, migrants, labor potential, war, age structure of the population, internally displaced persons, refugees.