Capacity-Credit Evaluation of Renewable Energy Power in Jiaxing City based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

Abstract

In the next few years, Zhejiang's photovoltaic and offshore wind power will usher in substantial growth. As the continuous expansion of photovoltaic and offshore wind power installations, and the current grid planning needs and renewable energy development trends, it is of great importance to establish a capacity credit model for renewable energy output, which provides a basis for the realization of power system balance. This paper adopts the renewable energy capacity credit calculation method based on sequential Monte-Carlo simulation, and the evaluation of capacity credit adopts the secant method. According to the specific data of Jiaxing City's load, conventional machine assembly capacity, photovoltaic resources, wind resources, etc. in 2020, detailed simulation modeling and calculations have been carried out for the capacity credit of two renewable energy power generation scenarios, photovoltaic and wind power. Then, according to the results, the capacity credit of the local renewable energy power generation in Jiaxing City is analyzed with the change of renewable energy capacity, and recommendations are provided for the future development trend of photovoltaic and wind power in Jiaxing City.