A Study of People Movement Index in Indonesia During Lebaran 2021

Abstract

Eid al-Fitr or Lebaran is one of the biggest national holidays in Indonesia. It is a day in a year where most people, usually urban citizens, goes back to their parents or childhood home. In normal condition, this high mobility culture has many positive social and economic aspects, but in pandemic situation, it is the opposite. Mobility reduction is a key in controlling emerging Covid-19. Unfortunately, big events or big holidays tend to overcome the pandemic crisis in terms of people’s mobility. In this study, we use movement range index data to analyze the dynamics of people’s mobility in Indonesia around national holidays, especially Lebaran 2021. A deep learning approach is applied to create prediction of people’s mobility based on past behavior and other variables such as Covid-19 daily cases and government regulation. It is shown that Eid al-Fitr effect on people’s desire to move surpasses pandemic condition or even government regulation.