An ABM to Monitor Landscape Dynamics and to Undertake Collective Foresight Investigations in the Amazon

Abstract

By seeking for alternative land uses in the Amazon, we designed an Agent-Based Model (ABM) containing a set of rural practices for small-scale farmers. In order to reach a more sustainable development, we analyze the benefits and the constraints of these practices. By comparing various production activities starting from the same initial conditions, we test several strategies and their efficiency faced to different initial conditions and environmental laws. Our study does not compare solely the financial profits of the agricultural activities. But it seeks to better understand and assess the feasibility of new activities in terms of family labor management, availability of land and economic profitability. Our first results conclude that a strict compliance with the law is not economically sustainable if the farmers still apply their standard land use strategies. We hope that this model could become a useful tool for the small farmers. By easily modifying the behavior of an agent, they could virtually invent and assess the efficiency of new practices on their farm. We also hope that this tool could become a means to facilitate dialogue between different stakeholders in the Amazon, in order to achieve more sustainable development.