How Valid are the Reported Cases of People Infected with Covid-19 in the World?

International Journal of Coronaviruses Pub Date : 2020-05-28 DOI:10.14302/issn.2692-1537.ijcv-20-3376

R. Isea

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引用次数: 7

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to analyze the registered cases of people who have been infected with Covid-19 registered from throughout the world, using a digital forensic analysis technique that is based on Benford's Law. Twenty-three countries were randomly chosen for this analysis: China, India, Germany, Brazil, Venezuela, Netherlands, Italy, Colombia, Russia, Norway, South Africa, Portugal, Singapore, United Kingdom, Chile, Ecuador, Egypt, Denmark, Ireland, France, Belgium, Australia and Croatia.. We calculate on the p-values based on Pearson χ2 and Mantissa Arc Test according to the results obtained with the first digit. If any country fails these two tests, a third proof will be carried out based on the Freedman-Watson test. The results indicated that results from Italy, Portugal, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Denmark, Belgium and Chile are suspicions of data manipulation because the numbers fail the Benford’s Law according to the results obtained until April 30, 2020. However, it is necessary to carry out further studies in these countries in order to ensure that they countries manipulate or altered the information.

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世界上报告的Covid-19感染病例有多有效?

本文的目的是利用基于本福德定律的数字法医分析技术，分析世界各地登记的Covid-19感染病例。随机选择23个国家进行分析:中国、印度、德国、巴西、委内瑞拉、荷兰、意大利、哥伦比亚、俄罗斯、挪威、南非、葡萄牙、新加坡、英国、智利、厄瓜多尔、埃及、丹麦、爱尔兰、法国、比利时、澳大利亚和克罗地亚。我们根据第一个数字得到的结果，根据Pearson χ2和尾数弧线检验计算p值。如果任何国家未能通过这两项测试，将根据弗里德曼-沃森测试进行第三项证明。结果显示，截止到2020年4月30日，意大利、葡萄牙、荷兰、英国、丹麦、比利时、智利等国家的选举结果均不符合本福德定律，存在操纵数据的嫌疑。但是，有必要在这些国家进行进一步的研究，以确保这些国家操纵或改变资料。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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International Journal of Coronaviruses

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