Predicting potential impacts of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. farm sector

Abstract

In April 2018, China proposed import tariffs up to 25% on hundreds of U.S. products, including soybeans, cotton, sorghum, and pork. We analyze the potential impact of these tariffs on U.S. domestic prices, production, and economic welfare. U.S. exports to China could decrease as much as 83%.