Statistical Analysis on the Power Energy Adequacy of the PV Generation in South China

Abstract

Statistical models to evaluate the electricity supply ability of the PV power is important for the planning of the generation resources and storages in the new power system. In this paper, statistical analysis is carried on the operation data of PV stations in south China from different time scales. The means and variances of the PV Daily Maximum Power Generation Utilization Hours (D-MPUH) in each month, as well as the distributions of the Hourly Electricity Output (HEO) in the year are established. Based on analysis of the statistic relationship, a parameter estimation method for the daily electricity supply curves of PV stations considering the regional correlation with the latitude is proposed and verified by the historical samples of the PV stations.