Bayesian reliability assessment for high-value pyrotechnics systems based on inheritance factor

Abstract

A Bayesian reliability assessment method for pyrotechnics systems based on the inheritance factor is proposed to solve the problem of reliability assessment of high-value pyrotechnics systems with small samples. In this method, the test data of a pyrotechnics system and its components are combined to assess the reliability of the pyrotechnics system, and the inheritance factor is adopted to describe the similarity between the test data of the pyrotechnics system and its components. With the new method, the evaluated reliability of a pyrotechnics system reaches 0.9901 under the confidence level 0.90. The result shows that the new method is more rational than the classical method and the traditional Bayesian method, and it is feasible to use the new method to evaluate the reliability of pyrotechnics systems.