Avalanche Activity in Russia in the Changing Climate

Abstract

The requirements for the calculation of indicators of avalanche activity determined by climatic conditions in the territories under developing, as well as prognosis of their changes in the future are enshrined in Russian Federation legislation. However, the data required for this do not exist for all the regions of the country, especially those, that are only now included in the industrial exploration. The dependences between the climatic and the geomorpho- logical indicators and parameters of avalanches and avalanche activity are developed earlier on the basis of data from direct observations. The indicators are based on the average annual maximum ten-day snow cover height, the number of days with snow cover, the duration of the avalanche period and the average long-term frequency of avalanches. The climatic parameters presented by model MRI-CGCM3 (RCP 8.5) were incorporated into these dependences system. This made possible to estimate the indicators of avalanche activity for the middle and for the end of the 21st century. Also, their changes relative to the present conditions were assessed. Thus, a methodology was successfully tested that allows to include normatively defined characteristics of avalanche activity in the anal- ysis and forecasts of regional climate changes for any climate scenarios.