Evaluating large transport infrastructure projects — a critical-constructive review of the theory of strategic misrepresentation

Abstract

Large infrastructure projects are, as several international studies show (e.g. Wachs 1990, Flyvbjerg et al. 2005), often miscalculated. The same has been shown in a country like Norway (e.g. Odeck 2004, Strand 2004, Osland et al 2007), which has a long tradition for transport planning as well as key role of macro-economics in the planning system. The wrong estimates often imply underestimations of costs in planning and building infrastructure, whereas the positive effects on transport demand are often underestimated in the cases of road infrastructure, but more often overestimated in the case of rail infrastructure (Flyvbjerg et al. op.cit). In this paper we will, firstly, describe and criticize the methodology of the perspective on decision-making as strategic misrepresentations. Secondly we will attempt to provide a constructive development of this analytical approach, both theoretically informed by institutional theory and based on the plausible alternatives that Flyvbjerg et al have promoted in terms of institutional improvement.