Bayesian update of the residual life of a concrete structure using inspection data

Abstract

This article presents a model of a deteriorating concrete structure subject to external load and inspection. The structure naturally deteriorates in time due to the environmental effects and the changes in the construction materials. The deterioration process is modeled as a gamma process. The stochastic process of load arrivals is generated by a Poisson process and the variability of the random loads is assumed to be governed by a generalized Pareto distribution. Upon inspection, the parameters of the gamma distribution are updated using the Bayesian method. Thus, after each inspection, the resistance of the concrete structure is modified and the corresponding lifetime distribution of the structure can be estimated. An example of concrete girders is provided to illustrate the whole methodology.