THE USES OF THEORY IN THE SIMULATION OF URBAN PHENOMENA

Abstract

A BRIEF EXAMINATION IS MADE OF THE PART PLAYED BY THEORY IN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT. THEORY AND PRACTICE ARE CONTRASTED AND A PARALLEL CONTRAST IS DRAWN BETWEEN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING. AN EFFORT IS MADE TO DEMONSTRATE THAT IN THE MODERN WORLD IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO DRAW A SHARP LINE BETWEEN THESE VARIOUS OPPOSED PAIRS OF ACTIVITIES. IT IS ALSO CONCLUDED THAT THEORY AND PRACTICE HAVE A WELL-KNOWN RECIPROCAL RELATIONSHIP RELATED TO SCIENTIFIC INDUCTION AND DEDUCTION. AN EXAMINATION IS MADE OF THE CREATIVE JUMP FROM INDUCTIVE GENERALIZATION TO THE GENERATION OF NEW THEORIES OR NEW WAYS OF LOOKING AT THE WORLD WHICH WILL SUSTAIN EXTENSIVE DEDUCTION AND GENERATE NEW HYPOTHESES WHICH ARE TESTABLE. THREE CRITERIA FOR USEFUL THEORIES ARE DISCUSSED' CAPACITY FOR MANIPULATION, FRUITFULNESS, AND ECONOMY. OTHER CRITERIA SUCH AS REALISM, COMPREHENSIBILITY, AND COMPREHENSIVENESS ARE EXAMINED AND FOUND TO BE ONLY PARTLY APPLICABLE. THE DISCUSSION IS ILLUSTRATED THROUGHOUT WITH EXAMPLES FROM LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION SIMULATION. CONCLUSIONS ARE DRAWN REGARDING FUTURE DIRECTIONS OF RESEARCH AND SOME OF THE DESIRABLE CHARACTERISTICS OF RESEARCH ESTABLISHMENTS. /AUTHOR/