Analysis of the Economic Security of the Power Grid Complex in Russia Based on an Assessment of the Likelihood of Bankruptcy of Enterprises

Abstract

Natural monopolies are one of the most profitable sectors of the economy. However, due to the lack of competition, the government has to regulate prices through rigid tariffs, thereby limiting the amount of revenue. This trend plays a huge role for the end consumer, as prices are fixed by the public sector. This negatively affects the economic security of the monopolist enterprise. Improper management of an enterprise in conditions of government regulation, limited investment resources, high consumer requirements for the quality of electricity can lead to the bankruptcy of the power grid company.To identify the risk of bankruptcy in the article, calculations were performed using multiple discriminant analysis models (MDA models: Altman's two-factor model and Fedotova's two-factor model) and logistic models (Logit models: Gruzchinsky's model (2003) and Lin-Piesse's model (2004)) of the annual financial reports of enterprises of the electric grid complex of Russia (subsidiaries of PJSC Rosseti, such as: OJSC IDGC of Urals, PJSC IDGC of Center and Volga Region, PJSC Rosseti Volga, PJSC Rosseti Kuban, PJSC TRK) for the last five years (2016-2020, this period characterizes the financial situation of enterprises before and during the Covid-19 pandemic).