The frequency of severe droughts in Crimea and their relationship with El Niño

A. Degterev
{"title":"The frequency of severe droughts in Crimea and their relationship with El Niño","authors":"A. Degterev","doi":"10.25136/2409-7543.2023.2.40861","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n In this paper the author discusses such an urgent problem for the environmental safety of the Black Sea region as drought. The frequency of droughts lasting more than three decades in the period from April to August inclusive is considered on the basis of data on monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperatures shown from 1950 to 1999. There were seven two-month droughts and one three-month drought. The frequency of droughts in separate months is calculated. The change over the years of the maximum value of the El Niño index per episode from 1950 to 2023 is analyzed. The connection of two-month droughts with this parameter is noted. Based on the results of the study conducted in this paper, the author comes to conclusions about the regularities in the manifestation of severe droughts in the Black Sea region. In particular, it was concluded that in recent decades, strong manifestations of El Niño recur no more often than after 15 years. This makes it possible to predict episodes with an index value of more than 2.6 not earlier than 2030. It is especially noted that so far the main danger in Crimea is two-month droughts. During the considered 50 years of drought lasting more than six decades in a row in the period from April to August, there were 8 times.\n","PeriodicalId":150406,"journal":{"name":"Вопросы безопасности","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Вопросы безопасности","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.25136/2409-7543.2023.2.40861","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this paper the author discusses such an urgent problem for the environmental safety of the Black Sea region as drought. The frequency of droughts lasting more than three decades in the period from April to August inclusive is considered on the basis of data on monthly precipitation and mean monthly temperatures shown from 1950 to 1999. There were seven two-month droughts and one three-month drought. The frequency of droughts in separate months is calculated. The change over the years of the maximum value of the El Niño index per episode from 1950 to 2023 is analyzed. The connection of two-month droughts with this parameter is noted. Based on the results of the study conducted in this paper, the author comes to conclusions about the regularities in the manifestation of severe droughts in the Black Sea region. In particular, it was concluded that in recent decades, strong manifestations of El Niño recur no more often than after 15 years. This makes it possible to predict episodes with an index value of more than 2.6 not earlier than 2030. It is especially noted that so far the main danger in Crimea is two-month droughts. During the considered 50 years of drought lasting more than six decades in a row in the period from April to August, there were 8 times.
克里米亚严重干旱的频率及其与El Niño的关系
本文对黑海地区干旱这一紧迫的环境安全问题进行了探讨。根据1950年至1999年的月降水量和月平均气温数据,考虑了4月至8月期间持续30多年的干旱频率。有7次2个月的干旱和1次3个月的干旱。计算出不同月份的干旱频率。分析了1950 ~ 2023年El Niño指数每集最大值的年际变化。注意到两个月干旱与该参数的关系。根据本文的研究结果,得出了黑海地区严重干旱的表现规律。特别是,得出的结论是,近几十年来,El Niño的强烈表现复发的频率不超过15年。这使得预测指数值大于2.6的事件不早于2030年成为可能。特别值得注意的是,到目前为止,克里米亚的主要危险是两个月的干旱。在连续60多年的50年干旱中,从4月到8月发生了8次。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信