WILDFIRES FORECAST PERFORMANCE IN ALBANIA DURING SUMMER 2020

Abstract

"The Wildfire Risk Forecast (WRF) remains a daily procedure conducted by the National Centre for Forecast and Monitoring of Natural Hazards (NCFMNH), which is part of the Institute of Geosciences, Energy, Water and Environment (IGEWE) of Albania. WRF is generated on daily basis, by the country’s administrative unit (prefecture) and disseminated to the General Directorate of Civil Emergencies (GDCE) in order to help better coordinate fire-fighting activities. This study investigates the accuracy of the Wildfire Risk Forecasts during the 2020 summer season by analysing fire occurrences over each prefecture of Albania for two components of wildfire forecast Performance, i.e., The Prefecture Hit Probability (PHP) and the Average Fires per Hit (AFH). The study has revealed a “VERY GOOD” Performance for the “High Risk Level” forecast alerts, “GOOD” Performance for the “Moderate Risk Level” and “Low Risk Level” forecast alerts, and VERY GOOD” Performance for the “No Risk Level”"