Notice of RetractionModeling and forecasting groundwater level fluctuations of Shiraz plain using advanced statistical models

2010 International Conference on Environmental Engineering and Applications Pub Date : 2010-10-07 DOI:10.1109/ICEEA.2010.5596108

Naeem Shahidi, M. Rahnemaei, R. A. Sharifan, A. Nematollahi

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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Industrial and agricultural developments cause decreasing groundwater level in the world and Iran also. This tends to drying of water wells, decrease in river flow, lowering of water quality, increase of pumping costs, ground settlements and aquifer death. Shiraz aquifer, area of 270 square kilometer, located in south of Iran. Monthly unit hydrograph data was measured in 16 years 1993-2008, calculated with average weighting method. ITSM software is used for all calculations in this research. For achieving a stationary series, trend and seasonal components removed from original data by differencing operator (first with 2 lags and then with 12 lags). Then the autoregressive (order 24) fitted to the series with AIC=165.117. Coefficient of the fitted model finalized by the residual tests. All test of randomness (6 tests) confirmed the selected model. For 5 years in the future, forecast data evaluated by 95% confidence interval. In period of 1993-2008 and 2009-2013, no tremendous reduction in the mean groundwater level recorded or will be seen.

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利用先进的统计模型模拟和预测设拉子平原地下水位波动

工业和农业的发展导致世界和伊朗的地下水位下降。这往往会导致水井干涸、河水流量减少、水质下降、抽水成本增加、地面沉降和含水层死亡。设拉子含水层，面积270平方公里，位于伊朗南部。1993-2008年16年逐月单位水文资料测量，采用平均加权法计算。本研究使用ITSM软件进行所有计算。为了获得平稳序列，通过差分算子(先用2个滞后，然后用12个滞后)从原始数据中去除趋势和季节成分。对AIC=165.117的序列进行自回归(阶数为24)拟合。残差试验确定的拟合模型系数。所有随机检验(6次)均证实了所选模型的正确性。对未来5年的预测数据用95%置信区间进行评价。在1993-2008年和2009-2013年期间，没有记录到或将看到平均地下水位大幅下降。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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2010 International Conference on Environmental Engineering and Applications

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