Safety of civil air transportation in figures and diagrams

Abstract

Ensuring the safety of civil aviation is the most important transport and economic task. Its solution makes it possible to develop civil air transportation. The purpose of this work is to analyze the indicators of individual and social risk in the civil aviation of the Russian Federation and to identify the generalized causes of aviation accidents. The methods of statistical analysis and modeling were used. The dynamics of the individual risk of deaths shows a negative trend in 1992-2021, while a comparison of the calculated average values of the individual risk of deaths for air passengers over the past 22 years and the previous period available for calculation (1992-1999) shows equal values. The calculations of the social risk of deaths in air accidents for different periods show that the social risk for air passengers has little changed. The model “bow tie” based on the published materials of investigations of air crashes showed the causes of accidents of aircrafts, demonstrated obvious consequences and allowed us to formulate safety barriers.