Term Structure, Forecast Revision and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy

Abstract

Monetary policy shocks affect interest rates at long horizons (10 years or more). Furthermore, the private sector’s real GDP forecasts are revised upward in response to a monetary tightening. These facts challenge the prevailing theories in academic and policy circles. In this paper, I propose a micro-founded model to rationalize those facts, based on the signaling channel of monetary policy. I consider a framework where the central bank has private information about future economic conditions. Agents update their beliefs according to Bayes’ theorem. Policy actions play a signaling role, and may therefore rationalize the above empirical findings.