Estimation of Uncertainty in the Flow Field around Underground Ains (Qanats) Using Monte-Carlo Method

Abstract

Subsurface is heterogeneous in its structure. Its hetero- geneity makes predictions very complicated. Recently, researchers have developed techniques to incorporate heterogeneity on models to be able to quantify the heterogeneity and to study its effect on engineering structures. Numerical experiments were designed, through the development of a computer code called "FLOW2AIN", to simulate groundwater flow to Ains (Qanats) in a heterogeneous subsurface. The purpose of these experiments is to quantify the effect of uncertainty in the local heterogeneity around the Ain on the flow field and the expected flux of water infiltrated to the Ain from the ambient groundwater. The numerical experiments discuss the influence of the degree of heterogeneity on the expected seepage discharge towards the Ain and its uncertainty due to heterogeneity of the subsurface.